Nifty View for 01.11.2011

Spot Nifty levels for intra-day trade on 01.11.2011

No trade between 5308 and 5345(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5345 with SL of 5325 for targets of 5363-5381-5400-5418
Sell below 5308 with SL of 5328 for targets of 5290-5272-5254-5236
Happy Trading !

NIFTY DAILY 31.10.2011

NIFTY DAILY 31.10.2011

The rise in Nifty seems to be restricted at the second standard deviation after the high on Friday.Also the +DI of ADX indicator was restricted at the 40 levels.For the momentum to continue it should cross above the 40 levels.Else we may consolidate in the range of 100-150 points on Nifty for further move.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY POLYGON WITH FIBO FANS 28.10.2011

NIFTY POLYGON 28.10.2011

FIBOFANS ON NIFTY 28.10.2011

Nifty View for 31.10.2011

Spot Nifty levels for intra-day trade on 31.10.2011

No trade between 5342 and 5379(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5379 with SL of 5359 for targets of 5397-5416-5434-5453
Sell below 5342 with SL of 5362 for targets of 5324-5306-5288-5270
Happy Trading !

NIFTY IN CURRENT SCENARIO 28.10.2011:

Nifty has given breakout of the range of 4720 to 5170(450 points).I had advocated the levels of 50% of 4950 to be positive in Nifty. Now we have a channel breakout with targets of 5170 + 450 = 5620 on Nifty. Let’s not be euphoric about the bullish sentiments prevailing in the markets. Look at the big picture on the Nifty the trendline resistance connecting the tops of 5^th  Nov 2010 comes to 5400 levels on the spot nifty. Also the Fibonacci levels from 5737 to 4720 are 5229(50%),5349(61.8%) and 5519(78.6%).  I expect the spot Nifty below the 5349 level to consolidate between 5349 to 5229 which will auger well for the further momentum. So one can easily short the spot nifty below 5349 for targets of 5229 with suitable stop  loss. Above 5349 I expect the markets to try to reach the level of 5519 on the spot nifty. Short term players can trade the range of 5349 to 5229 as consolidation may take place between this range. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty View for 28.10.2011

Spot Nifty levels for intra-day trade on 28.10.2011

No trade between 5324 and 5360(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5360 with SL of 5340 for targets of 5379-5397-5415-5434
Sell below 5324 with SL of 5344 for targets of 5305-5287-5269-5251
Happy Trading !

Nifty View for 28.10.2011

As our markets were closed today and SGX Nifty was traded it is impossible to give levels for tomorrow.So will try to udate the level on open of markets.
Happy Trading!

WD Gann : The Man and His Incredible Trading Legacy

The name of WD. Gann has become legendary among traders and market technicians today. Tales of his phenomenal success in trading and his arcane, yet highly accurate, technical theories are widely known. Not so well known, however, are the particulars about Gann and his methods.

Who was this mysterious man who claimed to have discovered the secrets of consistently and accurately forecasting the markets? What discoveries enabled him to do this? Do his theories and techniques still apply in today's markets? More importantly, if they do still apply, can they be explained in a straight-forward, simplistic manner without the esoteric jargon and abstruse mathematical concepts that enshroud much of his work?

To begin, |et's explore a little of Gann's background. William Delbert Gann was born on a cotton ranch on June 6, 1878, in Lufkin, Texas. He displayed a strong aptitude in mathematics during his early strong aptitude in mathematics during his early years, completed a high-school education, and start-ed trading in 1902 at the age of 24. By his own admission, Gann‘s early trading was based on "hope, fear and greed," all of which he later realized were not compatible with a successful trading strategy.

”After losing significant sums of money," writes James A. Hyerczyk in his excellent work on Gann theory entitled Pattern, Price gr Tirne,2 ”Gann began to obsenre that markets followed mathematical laws and Certain time cycles. He was particularly interested in the connection between price and time, a relationship he referred to as the 'square* of price and time. l-le began studying this interaction diligently even traveling to England, India, and Egypt to research mathematical theory and historical prices.

"In developing his theories, Gann was undoubtedly one of the most industrious technical analysts. He made thousands of charts displaying daily, weekly, monthly and yearly prices for a wide variety of stocks and commodities. He was an avid researcher, occasionally charting a price back hundreds of years. At a time when most market analysis was strictly fundamental, Gann's revolutionary theories relied on natural laws of mathematics, time cycles, and his unshakeable conviction that past market activity predicted future activity.

In conducting his market research, Gann discovered a rule that would become the bedrock of his trading methodology a rule he called the "Law of Vibration/‘ which he claimed applied to the realm of natural science as well as the financial realm. Gann so refined this law that once a stock started to move higher or lower he was able to pinpoint the exact level to which a stock would rise or fait and often the exact time required to reach this objective.

He is famous, of course, for being one of the few to accurately forecast the stock market crash of 1929 and subsequent depression. in fact, he wrote a detailed month-by-month overview and forecast for the entire trading year 1929 one full year in advance (as part of his "Annual Stock Forecast" service to his newsletter subscribers); the vast majority of which was accurately fulfilled.

Gann was as versatile a trader as he was a successful one. Unlike traders of today who tend to specialize in a single area (like stocks or particular commodities), Gann made money trading in everything. He was a member of the New York Rubber Exchange,New York Commodity Exchange, New Orleans Cotton Exchange, and Chicago Board of Trade. ln his various books he describes his methods for accurately forecasting price trends of a wide variety of commodities, including coffee, sugar, cocoa, rubber, hides, hogs, eggs, cotton, wheat, rye, corn, soybeans, wool, Iard, and butter. lf there was an various books he describes his methods for accurately forecasting price trends of a wide variety of commodities, including coffee, sugar, cocoa, rubber, hides, hogs, eggs, cotton, wheat, rye, corn, soybeans, wool, lard, and butter. lf there was an exchange for it, Gann probably traded it, regardless of what it was. This goes to show the universality of Gann's phenomenal trading and forecasting techniques, which can be applied to any market.

By all indications, Gann's trading success was impressive. According to Hyerczyk, an analysis of Gann's trading record over 25 market days revealed that Gann made 286 trades, 264 of which were profitable. His success rate of 92.31% turned an initial investment of $450 into $37,000.** It has been rumored that over the span of his trading career, Gann acquired cumulative profits totaling $50 million, a figure which, however, is unsubstantiated. Brokerage statements indicate that he traded an account with a balance in excess of $2 miIIion and that upon his death he left an estate valued at around $5 million.

During his lifetime, Gann generously shared his knowledge and ideas with others, pennlng a total of seven books and numerous trading courses. Most of his more complex, intricate techniques were revealed in his commodity trading courses, such as the "Master Egg Course," among others. But the basis of his theories was revealed in more down-to-earth, perpetually popular volumes such as Truth ofthe Stock Tape and its companion, Wali Street Stock Selector. Other works include The Tunnel Thru the Air: Or Looking Back from l940; New Stock Trend indicator; How to Make Profits in Commodities; and 45 Years in Wall Street.

Overall, WD. Gann was arguably one of the most successful and accurate traders in the annals of Wall Street history. He set world records for leverage and trading profits on more than one occasion, and unlike most of his successful peers, he never failed to share his knowledge with an eager trading public, desirous of learning the proper way to acquire profits in the markets. He was as prolific and successful a teacher as he was a trader, a legacy which endures even today, as many of the worId’s top traders and investors continue to pore through his work and adapt Gann methods to modern—day instruments. Let us now take a look at some of the basic principles of Gann Theory, which continue to influence modern—day investors.

1929 PREVIEW

1929 PREVIEW


JANUARY, FEBRUARY AND MARCH
While the New Year opens under favourable conditions and you will hear much about great prosperity and the newspapers will be optimistic for the future, the bright outlook is likely to be clouded with war or complications in foreign countries. Trouble is threatened to the United States thru Mexico or Japan. Peace pacts are likely to be broken. Spain and France will arouse opposition. Agitation over religion in some of the foreign countries will disturb peaceful conditions.

Great storms are indicated in the south and south western parts of the United States during the early spring. Much loss and damage by fire. In March when President Hoover takes office, if some law has not already been passed, he will advocate having one passed to help the farmers. This will cause an advance in commodities and in turn help agricultural stocks. Airplane concerns will make rapid progress in the spring and from a panicky depressed stock market in February and March, a spring bull campaign will take place. Steel business will be quite active. Electrical concerns will do a large business and there will be a boom in oil stocks.


APRIL, MAY AND JUNE

The spring quarter indicates unfavourable weather for starting crops. Storms, rains, and danger of a tidal wave along the Gulf of Mexico. Commodity prices will advance and business in general will improve. A wild wave of speculation in oils, coppers, rubbers, sugars and airplane stocks will make this a very active period. Along in May or June, foreign competition will begin to hurt business in some lines in this country. This will cause a depressing effect on stocks and they will decline.

JULY, AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER

During this period, some of the foreign countries will prosper and we will have great competition to face. War or trouble with foreign countries, is threatened. A very mixed market during this period with some stocks advancing while others decline. Speculation will shift from stocks to commodities on account of short crops. Foreign crops will be short in some of the countries. Storms and unseasonable weather will cause damage.

August will be marked by many electric storms and damage by fire. Some new discoveries will help chemical stocks around this time. Germany and France will make great strides in aviation.

September: - A great change in business conditions will set in around this time which will cause a severe decline in the is stock market. Textile and woollen stocks will prosper and these will be among the last stocks to advance. During the months of April, August, September and October, there is danger of war and trouble thru foreign countries.

OCTOBER, NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER

Settlement of the debt question with France will again come to the front. Other countries will arrange some favourable agreement in regard to trade, which will cause business depression here. A great change in the business outlook will set in as we near the end of the year. Corporation earnings will show depreciation and be disappointing.

The month of October indicates some advance in mining stocks. The oil and sugar stocks will be among the last to advance around this time. During November the chemicals and oils will have a boom for a short time and make final top. In December foreign business with South American countries will be good, but we will have competition from some of the European countries.

MONTHLY INDICATIONS

JANUARY

The New Year starts off under favourable conditions, but profit taking will start and stocks will sell off sharply the first few days. Then food buying will appear and an advance will start. The oils, rubbers, chemicals, and airplanes will lead the advance, reaching top around the 12th to 15th. Around the 18th to 24th some rails, electrics and steels will advance. Some trouble in foreign countries, probably Germany or France, will have an unfavourable effect and will help to start the decline here. Watch for top; sell out long stocks and go short. Quite a decline will take place to the end of the month.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 12th to 15th; extreme lows around the 5th to 7th and 30th. Minor moves: - January 2nd decline should start; 5th to 7th bottom of decline. Heavy buying should start around this time and a sharp advance should take place-making top around the 12th. 19th bottom of decline; 24th top of rally; then follows heavy selling and a sharp decline, reaching bottom around the 30th.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 15th; extreme low around the 5th to 7th and 30th. Minor moves - January 2nd top, when decline should start; 5th to 7th bottom for quite a rally; 15th top of strong rally, when another decline should start; 21st bottom of decline; 24th top of rally. From this top a big decline should take place reaching low for the month around the 30th.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - the dates marked “XX” are the most important and indicate a major change in trend. You should watch for important changes around these dates. The dates marked “X” only indicate minor changes in trend, which will only last for a few days. – January 5th – 7th XX, 11th – 12th X, 25th – 26th XX, 31st X.

FEBRUARY

Business will fall off and we will hear some discouraging reports. The Federal Reserve Bank will make some change or threaten to curb speculation. There will be talk of new banking laws, which may be adverse to speculation. The general list of high - priced stocks will decline this month, altho the market will be mixed. Sugars, rubbers and late movers will have some advances. The railroad, airplane, radio and electric stocks will rally from every decline. Around the 12th to 13th of the month some of the oils, rubbers and sugars will be quite strong. The general list of old time leaders; however, will work lower from every little rally.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 13th to 14th and extreme low around the 28th. Minor moves: 1st to 4th advance; then follows a decline to the 8th, when bottom should be reached for another quick rally; 13th to 14th top, sell out and go short. Expect heavy liquidation and a sharp, severe decline reaching bottom around the 28th for a moderate rally.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 15th and extreme low around the 28th. Minor moves - 1st to 5th advance and make top for a moderate decline; 9th bottom of decline; expect quick rally in some rails, reaching high around the 15th, followed by a sharp decline making bottom around the 28th.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 9th to 12th XX; 19th to 20th XX; 23rd to 24th X, 28th X

MARCH

Mr. Hoover will take the office of President of the United States this month and in the early part of the month there will be a demonstration in stocks and quite an advance, but it will not hold and a sharp, severe decline will take place in many stocks before the end of the month. Some trouble is likely to come up in connection with Spain or Mexico, which will upset the market. Airplane stocks will be quite strong during the dates indicated for advances to take place. The oils, sugars and chemicals will hold up better than other socks. Traction stocks will be strong and there is likely to be some development in connection with the subway fare, which will cause an advance in New York traction stocks. The steels, motors, rails and electrical issues will break during the early and latter part of the month.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 4th to 5th; extreme low around the 28th to 29th, although some stocks will reach low for the month around the 14th to 15th. Minor moves: 1st to 5th strong advance. The market will be discounting President Hoover’s inauguration. A sharp decline fo1lows, making first bottom around the 14th to 15th; then a quick rally in many stocks reaching top around the 20th, followed heavy liquidation and a sharp decline to around the 28th or 29th when final bottom will be reached for another bull campaign. This is the time to buy the stocks in strong position as they will have sharp advances and work higher into the summer.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 4th to 5th; extreme low around the 9th to 11th and 28th - 29th. Minor moves: - 1st to 5th strong market. Stocks behind the market will lead the advance. From the top around the 4th to 5th quite a sharp decline will take place, culminating around the 9th to 11th; then follows a moderate rally reaching top around the 16th; then another decline, making final bottom around the 28th to 29th when you should buy the stocks in strong position for an advance which will last into the early days of May.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 4th to 5th X; 10th to 11th XX; 16th X; 21st to 23rd X; 28th to 29th XX.

APRIL

The public will again come into the market on a large scale and there will be a wild wave of speculation, especially in the oils, coppers, rubbers, sugars and airplane stocks. The chemicals, airplanes and radio stocks will have rapid advances. Some action by the Government on law passed will cause a break, which will run down to around the 15th. Money rates will be quite high. 16th to 30th - - General news will be more favourable and stocks will have better advances. Foreign trade will increase, especially with the South American countries.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme low for the month around the 12th to 13th and extreme high around the 20th to 22nd. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd top of quick advance; 12th to 13th bottom for another big advance; 20th to 22nd top of sharp rally; then follows a decline making bottom around the 26th to 27th when stocks should be bought for another advance, running to the end of the month and continuing into May.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme low for the month around the 10th to 11th and extreme high around the 20th to 22nd, although they will be quite strong and some will make higher just at the end of the month. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd - 4th quick advance; then follows a moderate decline, reaching bottom around the 10th to 11th, when a sharp advance will take place, stocks running up fast and making top around the 20th to 22nd, followed by a reaction to the 25th; then a strong advance to the end of the month.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 2nd to 3rd X; 9th to 10th X; 13th to 15th XX; 21st to 23rd XX; 26th to 27th X.

MAY

This is a month for great activity in the stock market. We will hear some very bullish news about general business conditions. There will be some large combines, consummation of mergers; large financial deals will take place and there will be much talk of continued prosperity, all of which will cause the public to buy stocks at the top. General news will be very bullish and stocks will fluctuate over wide ranges. Some stocks will reach high around the early part of the month and have a break around the middle of the month. Where will be a boom in rubbers, sugars, oils, airplane, radio and electrical stocks? These will be the leaders. Watch for top and sell out. Do not overstay your market, as a big break will take place in June.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 29th to 31st and extreme low around the 9th to 10th. Minor moves: - 1st to 4th quick rally, making top for a sharp reaction; 9th to 10th bottom of decline; buy for another sharp advance; 16th top of rally, but only for a minor reaction; 20th - bottom of reaction. Stocks in strong position will have a rapid advance between the 10th and 29th. Watch for top around this time.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 3rd to 4th; extreme low around the 11th to 13th, although some issues will go to extreme high around the end of the month. Minor moves; - 1st to 3rd strong market, making top around 3rd to 4th. Then follows a decline, making bottom around the 11th to 13th, followed by an advance making first top around the 25th for a moderate reaction to the 28th; then rally to the end of month.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 3rd to 4th X; 9th to 10th XX; 22nd to 23rd X; 29th to 31st XX.

JUNE

A sharp decline and heavy liquidation in many stocks is indicated for this month. There will be war in foreign countries or war rumours. Strikes at home as well as abroad. Crop news will be unfavourable. Storms or earthquakes on the southern border and in Mexico will do damage and help to unsettle the market. The outlook for the summer business will be very much mixed. One of the major cycles and time factors runs out this month and a very important change in trend is indicated. High priced stocks will have rapid declines and many stocks will make extreme high for the year. The tin, oils and agricultural stocks and also the chemicals will break badly after reaching top in the early part of the month. Motors will also decline sharply.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around June 1st; extreme low around the 22nd to 24th. Minor moves: - 1st to 2nd advance and make top for a big decline; 10th to 11th bottom of sharp decline; then follows a moderate rally reaching top around the 17th, followed by heavy liquidation and sharp decline making bottom 22nd to 24th. From the 24th to the end of the month many stocks will have quite a rally.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 3rd; extreme low around the 10th to 11th and 28th to 29th.

The rails will not move in a very wide range this month, except a few of the very high - priced issues. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd advance; 4th to 10th - 11th sharp decline; then follows a moderate rally, reaching top around the 21st to 22nd followed by liquidation and lower prices, making bottom for the month 28th to 29th.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - June 1st to 2nd XX; 7th to 10th X; 21st to 23rd XX; 28th X.

JULY

Another advance will take place this month and many stocks will have sharp rallies and reach the final high for the year. The airplane companies will prosper and their stocks will advance. Electrical and chemical stocks will also record sharp advances. Pools will rush up stocks as fast as they can to unload. The late movers will be brought into line while distribution is taking place in the old time leaders. Sugars and rubbers should have some sharp advances. A very important major time factor ends at this time and indicates the starting of a big prolonged bear campaign. Remember that the last high for the year well occur in many stocks. A great deluge and panicky decline will follow the top at this time, resulting in a "Black Friday" in September. There are likely to be some labour troubles and strikes in the west and south, which will interfere with the business outlook.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 20th; extreme low around the 9th to 10th. Minor moves 1st to 3rd strong market, making top for a quick decline; 9th to 10th bottom of sharp decline; then follows a rapid advance, making top on the 20th; decline reaching bottom on the 22nd; followed by a strong market to the end of the month.

RAILROAD STOCKS: - The rails will move in a comparatively narrow range this month. Extreme low is indicated around the 9th to 10th and 22nd; extreme high around the 15th. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd advance; then follows a decline making bottom around the 9th to 10th; a quick rally to the 15th; then follows a sharp decline reaching bottom on the 22nd, followed by an advance to the end of July.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 3rd to 5th XX; 10th X; 21st to 24th XX; 30th to 31st X.

AUGUST

A few of the late movers will advance this month and reach final high. Chemical stocks will be among the last to advance. The steels and oils will be strong for a while and the sugars and rubbers will make final top. Unfavourable news will develop which will start sharp declines and the long bull campaign will come to a sudden end. Money rates will be high and final top will be reached for a big bear campaign. Stand from under! Don't get caught in the great deluge! Remember it is too late to sell when everyone is trying to sell. There will be electric storms, which will cause damage to crops, and heavy losses are indicated thru fires.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 7th to 8th; extreme low 29th to 30th. Minor moves: - The first of the month starts in strong and prices run up fast reaching top around the 7th to 8th; then heavy selling will take place and a sharp decline will follow, bottom being reached around the 16th to 17th, but only for a small rally; 23rd to 24th top of rally, followed by heavy liquidation and lower prices, making bottom for the month around the 29th to 30th.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 8th to 9th, although some industrial stocks and rails among the late movers will hold up and not make top until the 14th to 15th as indicated on Curve #2. Extreme low for the month for rails indicated around the 30th to 31st. Minor moves: - 1st - advance will start and prices will run up fast, making top around the 8th to 9th; then follows a fast decline, reaching bottom around the 20th to 2lst followed by moderate rally to around the 25th; then a sharp decline making low for the month on the 30th to 31st.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 7th to 8th XX; 16th to 17th X; 23rd to 24th XX; 29th to 30th XX.

SEPTEMBER

One of the sharpest declines of the year is indicated. There will be loss of confidence by investors and the public will try to get out after it is too late. Storms will damage crops and the general business outlook will become cloudy. War news will upset the market and unfavourable developments in foreign countries. A "Black Friday" is indicated and a panicky decline is stocks with only small rallies. The short side will prove the most profitable. You should sell short and pyramid on the way down.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 2nd to 3rd; extreme low 27th to 28th. Minor moves: - 2nd to 3rd top of moderate rally. Heavy liquidation will break out around this time. Unfavourable news will develop and a sharp, severe decline will take place, reaching first bottom around the 16th to 17th, but only for a small rally. 20th to 21st top of moderate rally followed by another heavy wave of liquidation, carrying prices down to extreme low levels around the 27th to 28th, from which level a moderate rally will follow.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 3rd; extreme low at the end of the month. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd advance. Liquidation will start around this time and a sharp decline will follow, carrying prices down to around the 16th - 7th; then a moderate rally on short covering with top around the 23rd - 24th, followed by a sharp decline running down to the end of the month.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - September 2nd to 3rd XX; 16th to 17th XX; 21st to 24th X; 27th to 28th XX.

0CTOBER

General business conditions will be getting worse and the country will suffer from the over - speculation. Money rates will be high and bankers will call loans, causing some sharp declines in stocks after rallies. The chemical, electrical and airplane stocks will hold up and have some quick rallies.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high around the 18th to 19th; extreme low around the 8th to 9th and 26th to 28th. Minor moves: - October 2nd top of small rally from which a sharp decline will take place; 8th to 9th bottom of decline, when a better advance will take place, especially in the stocks in strong position; 18th to 19th top of rally. Stocks in weak position will have a sharp decline, running down to the 26th to 28th; then. follows a moderate rally to the end of the month.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 10th to 11th; extreme low 23rd - 24th. Minor moves: - 1st to 4th decline and make bottom for a moderate rally; 10th to 11th top of rally; then follows a heavy wave of liquidation and lower prices making bottom around the 23rd to 24th, followed by a moderate advance to the end of the month.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 2nd to 4th XX; 8th to 9th X; 18th to 20th XX; 26th to 28th X.

N0VEMBER

The oils, chemicals and rubbers will have a final advance this month and make top for another decline. Business conditions will be growing more unfavourable. There are likely to be earthquakes in Mexico or California. This will disturb the stock market and depress business. This is the month for war news from foreign countries and some great leader abroad will show his power. The latter part of the month is very unfavourable and some sharp declines will take place. But the airplane, radio and electrical companies and some of the rails will have an advance around the 10th to 22nd.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 2nd to 4th; extreme low around the 23rd to 25th. Minor moves: - follows heavy selling and a sharp decline, reaching bottom around the 11th to 12th, but only for a moderate rally; 18th to 19th top of advance. From this level there will be another sharp, severe decline carrying prices down to low levels around the 23rd to 25th. Then follows a moderate rally to the end of the month.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around, the 21st to 22nd; extreme low around the 27th to 28th.Minor moves; - 1st to 2nd top of moderate rally; then follows a decline, reaching bottom around the 9th to 11th; then a quick rally, making top around the 21st to 22nd followed by heavy liquidation and a sharp decline, making bottom around the 27th to 28th.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 1st to 2nd XX; 11th to 13th X; 17th to 19th XX; 24th to 26th X.

DECEMBER

Our business in some of the foreign countries will increase. Speculation will shift from stocks to commodities. The U. S. Government is threatened with great opposition, if not danger of war. General business outlook will grow very much more unfavourable Panicky declines in stocks will take place.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 2nd; extreme low around the 23rd to 24th. Minor moves: - 1st to 2nd advance; then follows a sharp, severe decline and heavy liquidation with only small rallies indicated lasting one to two days, reaching extreme low around the 23rd to 24th; then follows a quick rally reaching top on the 28th followed by decline to the 31st.

Gann's 1909 Ticker Interview

Gann's 1909 Ticker Interview
THE TICKER AND INVESTMENT DIGEST
(later became the Wall Street Journal)
Vol. 5 DECEMBER 1909 No.2
William D. Gann

An Operator Whose Science and Ability Place Him in the Front Rank
His Remarkable Predictions and Trading Records.
Sometime ago the attention of this magazine was attracted by certain long pull Stock Market predictions which were being made by William D. Gann. In a large number of cases Mr. Gann gave us, in advance, the exact points at which certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with prices close to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched.

For instance, when the New York Central was 131 he predicted that it would sell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his figures prove to be accurate, and so different did his work appear from that of any expert whose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr. Gann and his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as the particular use which he was making of them in the market.

The results of this investigation are remarkable in many ways.
It appears to be a fact Mr. W, D. Gann has developed an entirely new idea as to the principles governing stock market movements. He bases his operations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since the world began, have only in recent years been subjected to the will of man and added to the list of so-called modern discoveries. We have asked Mr. Gann for an outline of his work, and have secured some remarkable evidence as to the results obtained there from.

We submit this in full recognition of the fact that in Wall Street a man with a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions and encourages a scientific view of the Proposition, is not usually welcomed by the majority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. These activities the said majority abhors.

W. D. Gann's description of his experience and methods is given herewith. It should be read with recognition of the established fact that Mr. Gann's predictions have proved correct in a large majority of instances.

"For the past ten years I have devoted my entire time and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject."

"I soon began to realize that all successful men, whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting to make any money out of it."

"Being in the Brokerage business myself and handling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. I found that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end."

"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten years of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitable profession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, "I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time."

The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.

"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible."

"In order to test the efficiency of my idea I have not only put in years of labour in the regular way, but I spent nine months working night and day in the Astor Library in New York and in the British Museum of London, going over the records of stock transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt & all other important manipulators from that time to the present day. I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to & from the time of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law."

"In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variations in the value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followed by periods of inactivity."

Mr. Henry Hall in his recent book devoted much space to "Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which he found recurring at regular intervals of time. The law which I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily and even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met.

"Those in close touch with the market have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these conditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline."

"While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks which made their high prices in August were declining, United States Steel Common was steadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work, sending a particular stock on the upward trend whilst others were trending downward."

"I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions."

"The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of
each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental law of vibration. Science teaches that 'an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises."

"From my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces can only be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and their values in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic, they act in accordance with periodic law."

"Science has laid down the principle that the properties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight. A famous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the conviction that diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most intimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixed accidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes and developments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd."

Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or on the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.
"If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said, "There is nothing in the universe but mathematical points of force."

"Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe."

Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration. Stocks, like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they are controlled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law.

"After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market."

In order to substantiate Mr. W. D. Gann's claims as to what he has been able to do under his method, we called upon Mr. William E. Gilley, an Inspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr. Gilley is well known in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock market movements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examined every piece of market literature that has been issued & procurable in Wall Street. It was he who encouraged Mr. Gann to study the scientific and mathematical possibilities of the subject. When asked what had been the most impressive of Mr. Gann's work and predictions, he replied as follows :

"It is very difficult for me to remember all the predictions and operations of W. D. Gann which may be classed as phenomenal, but the following are a few. "In 1908 when the Union Pacific was 168-1/8, he told me it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it short all the way down to 152-5/8, covering on the weak spots and putting it out again on the rallies, securing twenty-three points profit out of an eighteen-point market wave."

"He came to me when United States Steel was selling around 50, and said, "This steel will run up to 58 but it will not sell at 59. From there it should break 16 points." We sold it short around 58 with a stop at 59. The highest it went was 58. From there it declined to 41-17 points."

"At another time, wheat was selling at about 89¢. Gann predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35. We bought it and made large profits on the way up. It actually touched $1.35."

"When Union Pacific was 172, he said it would go to 184-7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had a good break. It went to 184-7/8 and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it short repeatedly, with a stop at 185, and were never caught. It eventually came back to 17."

"Mr. Gann's calculations are based on natural law. I have followed Gann and his work closely for years. I know that he has a firm grasp of the basic principles which govern stock market movements, and I do not believe any other man can duplicate the idea or his method at the present time."

"Early this year, he figured that the top of the advance would fall on a certain day in August and calculated the prices at which the Dow Jones Averages would then stand. The market culminated on the exact day and within four-tenths of one percent of the figures predicted."

"You and W D Gann must have cleaned up considerable money on all these operations," was suggested.

"Yes, we have made a great deal of money. Gann has taken half-million dollars out of the market in the past few years. I once saw him take $130, and in less than one month run it up to over $12,000. Gann can compound money faster than any man I have ever met."

"One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer [1909] when he predicted that September Wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said, 'If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.' It is common history that September Wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of trading, closing at that figure."

So much for what W D Gann has said and done as evidenced by himself & others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place before our representative :
During the month of October, 1909, in twenty-five market days, W D Gann made, in the presence of our representative, two hundred and eighty-six transactions in various stocks, on both the long and short side of the market. Two hundred and sixty-four of these transactions resulted in profits ; twenty-two in losses.

The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times, so that at the end of the month he had one thousand percent of his original margin.
In our presence Mr. William D. Gann sold Steel common short at 94-7/8, saying that it would not go to 95. It did not.

On a drive which occurred during the week ending October 29, Mr. Gann bought U.S. Steel common stock at 86-1/4, saying that it would not go to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/3.
We have seen Gann give in one day sixteen successive orders in the same stock, eight of which turned out to be at either the top or the bottom eighth of that particular swing. The above we can positively verify.

Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing, are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.

James R. Koene has said, "The man who is right six times out of ten will make a fortune." Gann is a trader who, without any attempt to make a showing, for he did not know the results were to be published, established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades.

Mr. W. D. Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price, but to those scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.
We have requested Mr. Gann to figure out for the readers of the Ticker a few of the most striking indications which appear in his calculations. In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or out of Wall Street, is infallible.

William D Gann's figures at present indicate that the trend of the stock market should, barring the usual rallies, be toward the lower prices until March or April 1910.
He calculates that May Wheat, which is now selling at $1.02, should not sell below 99¢, and should sell at $1.45 next spring.

On Cotton, which is now at about 15¢ level, he estimates that after a good reaction from these prices the commodity should reach 18¢ in the spring of 1910. He looks for a corner in the March or May option.

Whether these figures prove correct or not will in no way detract from the record which W. D. Gann has already established.
William Delbert Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age. He is a gifted mathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures, and is an expert Tape Reader. Take away his science and he would beat the market on his intuitive tape reading alone.

Endowed as he is with such qualities, we have no hesitation in predicting that, within a comparatively few years, William D. Gann will receive recognition as one of Wall Street's leading operators.
Note: Since the market forecast was made, Coffee has suffered the expected decline, the extreme break having been 120 points. The lowest on the May wheat thus far has been $1.01-5/8. It is now selling at $1.06-1/4.

NIFTY VIEW FOR 26.10.2011

As expressed in Monday's view to trade with positive bias we got breakout on Nifty with today's high of 5211.The targets given at start of October series remained to be achieved(5427 and 5577).Also the targets given on Monday for the week were 5185(achieved) and 5227(still 16 points away).We had a close of 5211 on 5th august 2011 and now we are having a close near to it after nearly two months which is significant close  for spot Nifty.Next trading session will be a short trading one i.e. Muhurat Trading Session from   4.45 pm to 6.00 pm.The market has closed above the resistance of 5169.25 and has given hope for more.I expect a move of 100-125 point above the resistance of 5169 to roughly 5300(trying to close the gap set in August).Lets us see how the Samavat 2068 session sets the trend for the New year. 

Spot Nifty levels for intra-day trade on 26.10.2011

No trade between 5174 and 5210(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5210 with SL of 5190 for targets of 5228-5246-5264-5282
Sell below 5174 with SL of 5194 for targets of 5156-5138-5120-5102
Happy Trading !

NIFTY VIEW FOR 25.10.2011

Spot Nifty levels for intra-day trade on 25.10.2011

No trade between 5081 and 5116(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5116 with SL of 5096 for targets of 5134-5152-5170-5188
Sell below 5081 with SL of 5101 for targets of 5063-5045-5027-5009
Happy Trading !

Happy Diwali to ALL!

May Goddesss Lakshmi shower her blessings all the year and give you the desired profits in this Samavat.
Happy Trading !

Nifty View for 24.10.2011

Nifty View for 24.10.2011 
Trade with positive bias as I feel some upside is still left in it as we sustained above 5000 last week.In the chart we seem to be above the channel (forming a base there) for last week and the upper resistance seems achievable like 5185 and 5227 in this week.For this positional target given keep sl of 5011 with entry at 5040 if it comes.As this is expiry week keeping intra-day view looks to be prudent strategy.Intra-day trades can be taken as per levels given below daily.Also levels hold good for the day so entry can be taken again for buy or sell if it comes again in the day.

Spot Nifty levels for intra-day trade on 24.10.2011

No trade between 5032 and 5068(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5068 with SL of 5048 for targets of 5086-5103-5121-5139
Sell below 5032 with SL of 5052 for targets of 5014-4997-4979-4962
Happy Trading !

Nifty View for 21.10.2011

Spot Nifty levels for intraday trade on 21.10.2011

No trade between 5074 and 5110(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5110 with SL of 5090 for targets of 5128-5146-5164-5182
Sell below 5074 with SL of 5094 for targets of 5056-5039-5020-5003
Happy Trading !

NIFTY SYMMETRY

Nifty View for 20.10.2011

Spot Nifty levels for intraday trade on 20.10.2011

No trade between 5121 and 5157(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5157 with SL of 5137 for targets of 5175-5193-5211-5229
Sell below 5121 with SL of 5141 for targets of 5103-5086-5068-5050
Happy Trading !

Nifty View for 19.10.2011

Spot Nifty levels for intraday trade on 19.10.2011

No trade between 5032 and 5067(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5067 with SL of 5047 for targets of 5085-5103-5121-5139
Sell below 5032 with SL of 5052 for targets of 5014-4996-4979-4961
Happy Trading !

Nifty View for 18.10.2011

Spot Nifty levels for intraday trade on 18.10.2011

No trade between 5100 and 5136(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5136 with SL of 5116 for targets of 5154-5172-5190-5208
Sell below 5100 with SL of 5120 for targets of 5082-5065-5047-5029
Happy Trading !

Nifty View for 17.10.2011

Spot Nifty levels for intraday trade on 17.10.2011

No trade between 5114 and 5150(to avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5150 with SL of 5120 for targets of 5158-5176-5204-5222

Sell below 5114 with SL of 5134 for targets of 5097-5079-5061-5043

Happy Trading !

RSI AND BOLLINGER BANDS ON NIFTY

Nifty Monthly : On monthly chart the Bollinger Bands depicts  the price action. The yellow line is first standard deviation, green line is second std. deviation and central yellow line is the 20 simple moving average. The trend is down as the price action is below the 20 SMA.As per Bollinger bands the price has been supported at the SD-2 level of 4750.The price after being supported at that level has consolidated and has moved to the SD-1 level of 5149.10.Expect some resistance here or gap up will take it out smoothly.

RSI Monthly ; RSI is used to time the price action. Classically RSI above 80(overbought) is used to short or sell and below 20(oversold) level is used to long or buy.RSI and similar indicators can remain overbought and oversold at times leading to wrong decisions.

                         RSI can be used to time trades by plotting 20-40-60-80 levels on it.

Uptrend  40 – 80,strong uptrend 60 – 80.Downtrend  60 – 20,strong downtrend 40 – 20.Sideways 40–60.

Conclusion : Monthly RSI value is 41.6947 so the trend is sideways and next resistance can be 60 level if 40 is not breached. Also we are nearing the SD-1 level of 5149.10.So some resistance is expected. If this level is crossed we may move to the 20 SMA level of 5500.60on sustained move with volumes. Also watch the trendline support and resistance on RSI and the breakout which gave this move,which is nearly coinciding with 20 levels on RSI(actual 22.64).

 

Nifty Weekly : Bollinger Band Sd-2 level = 4638.40,SD-1 level = 4937.90 and 20 SMA level = 5253.80.

As the price is below the 20 SMA level the trend is down on weekly chart. The price had moved below to SD-2 level and crossed above it from bottom at 4846.70.One could have brought at that level and sold at SD-1 level of 5026.40 on breaking of it downwards(180 points profit).Again on crossing of SD-1 level of 4938 was entry point and is hold till now(200 points profit).as the weekly candle is still green with no upper shadow. Ideal target for this trade is 20 SMA at 5253.90 on weekly chart with suitable trailing stop loss(which may come or not need to be watched).

RSI weekly : Weekly RSI bottomed at 3.9836 corresponding to a low of 4716.30(my software may sho different levels please correlate it).

Entry point 1 = Crossover of RSI 20 level

Entry point 2 (Add position) = Crossover of RSI 40 level( trail suitably)

Booking profit for both position = Resistance of RSI 60 level or break of it on downside.

Reverse trade at RSI 60 resistance could be booked at RSI 40 level.

Current move entry 1(RSI 40) and add(RSI 60) and ideal resistance at RSI 80 level(watch carefully).

Conclusion ; Bollinger Bands show resistance at 5253.80 on crossover of 5180 level.On RSi look for resistance at 80 levels. Also channel shows we are in the positive zone with centre line at 5069 and channel top at 5540 level. Also SD+1 level above 20 SMA shows 5536.40.

 

Nifty Daily : Bollinger Bands Sd-2 level = 4719.10,SD-1 level = 4837,20 SMA level = 4959.30,

SD+1 level = 5081.50,Sd+2 level = 5203.70. Daily trend is up and near the Sd+2 levels of 5203.70.Observe the supports at Sd+1 level of 5081.50(twice).

RSI Daily : Currently we are at the resistance levl of RSI 80 and flirting with it with a close at 78.92.Above 80 on RSI will strengthen the move and below it will weaken it and can be used to time the trades.

 

Conclusion : On daily charts we are nearing the resistance of 5203.70.RSi is flirting with 80 levels.So we need to be cautious. Supports at 5081(SD+1 level) and RSI 60 level if we move down from here on the daily charts.

 

Nifty hourly : As we are above the 20 SMA of 5089.90 the trend is up. Also above SD+1 level of 5123.50 could  target the  SD+2 level of 5157.10.

RSI hourly : Again here we are flirting with 80 level. Above 80 will strengthen the move and below it will weaken. Need to be cautious and take action as per Monday’s hourly movement. Also we are above the channel resistance of 5135.15 which needs to be watched as by dropping in the channel again the momentum will be lost.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY VIEW FOR 14.10.2011

LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRA-DAY ON 14.10.2011
No trading zone between 5060 to 5092 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 5092 with SL of 5072 for targets of 5114 - 5131 - 5149- 5167
Sell below 5060 with SL of 5080 for targets of 5042 - 5025 - 5007- 4989
Happy Trading !

NIFTY AT CROSSROADS

NIFTY VIEW FOR 13.10.2011

LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRA-DAY ON 13.10.2011
No trading zone between 5082 to 5117 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 5117 with SL of 5097 for targets of 5135 - 5153 - 5171- 5189
Sell below 5082 with SL of 5102 for targets of 5064 - 5046 - 5028- 5011
Happy Trading !

NIFTY VIEW FOR 12.10.2011

LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRA-DAY ON 12.10.2011
No trading zone between 4957 to 4992 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 4992 with SL of 4972 for targets of 5010 - 5027 - 5045- 5063
Sell below 4957 with SL of 4977 for targets of 4939 - 4922 - 4904- 4887
Happy Trading !

NIFTY VIEW FOR 11.10.2011

Nifty has crossed the crucial level of 4950 and closed near the 5000 level which has turned the extreme short term view bullish.Next resistance on Nifty is 5015, if this crossed expect this run to continue till 5113.Today is generally positive with intraday volatility and the momentum on the upside above 5015 if crossed will be maintained.

LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRA-DAY ON 11.10.2011
No trading zone between 4962 to 4997 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 4997 with SL of 4977 for targets of 5015 - 5033 - 5050- 5068
Sell below 4962 with SL of 4982 for targets of 4944 - 4927 - 4909- 4892
Happy Trading !

NIFTY UPDATE

Nifty was resisted at the trendline shown by first arrow.If the same is crossed expect move upto the second trendline shown by arrow. Happy Trading !

NIFTY DAILY CHART TRENDLINE UPDATE

NIFTY DAILY TRENDLINES

NIFTY VIEW FOR 10.10.2011

Nifty trading has been very volatile for this month with unusual gaps on both sides up and down trapping positional traders.One needs to play cautiously in Nifty these days with  strict intra-day view only.Sometimes it happens that all the levels given are surpassed either on the upside or on the downside.On such days the volatility is high and safe traders need to stay out of markets.Nifty was resisted at 50% level on Friday at 4950 odd.The level could not be sustained and eventually we closed below the 4900 level again at 4888.10.We have support at 4830 and resistance at 5030.In this range we can trade for intra-day.Gap up or Gap down can change the range so be cautious.

LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRA-DAY ON 07.10.2011
No trading zone between 4871 to 4906 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 4906 with SL of 4891 for targets of 4923 - 4941 - 4958- 4976
Sell below 4871 with SL of 4886 for targets of 4853 - 4836 - 4818- 4801
Happy Trading !

NIFTY TRADING RANGE STRATEGY

Positional traders can use this for trading till nifty is in the range of 5178 to 4720.

NIFTY ON DAILY CHARTS 05.10.2011

NIFTY VIEW FOR 07.10.2011

 LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRADAY ON 07.10.2011
No trading zone between 4734 to 4769 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 4769 with SL of 4754 for targets of 4786 - 4803 - 4820- 4838
Sell below 4734 with SL of 4749 for targets of 4717 - 4700 - 4683- 4666
Happy Trading !

ANDREW'S PITCHFORK ON NIFTY

Andrew's Pitchfork, developed by none other than Dr Alan Andrew himself, is a technical indicator that relies on a channel technique using three parallel trend-lines acting as support and resistance levels.

The key to using strategy lies mainly in the median line where each line is created from previous major peaks and troughs.

The great advantage of this indicator is that it gives you a possible projection of where the price may form major highs and lows. Knowing this can help you anticipate to buy or sell the currency once the price reaches those lines. Basically, this will help you trade the channel from either the resistance level or the support level to the nearest line.

Here is an example of this indicator in action:

As you can see in the above 1 hour chart, Andrew’s Pitchfork was drawn by the use of point 1,2 and 3. We found the most recent low, which was at point 1. The next step is to pinpoint the highest move made from point 1, which is point 2. The next step is to determine the lowest retracement move made from point 2, which is point 3.

Once all those points are connected, you get the extension lines as seen in the picture above giving you insight that there may be an uptrend progressing.

The middle line is known as the median line, the top line acts as resistance and the bottom line acts as support. This indicator shows continuous points of support and resistance. The ideal way to use the pitchfork is to sell when the price moves to line 2 and to take profit when it reaches the median line.

As you may see from the above picture, price encountered support on line 3 for an extended period of time, when it finally moved to higher highs. Price then broke through the median line to test resistance line 2, before finally heading back to the median line.

The pitchfork is a great tool to use when the market is trending.
Now lets use it on Nifty

 

In the above chart of nifty we observe how the channel is adhered to by the prices giving supports and resistances.Now on the Nifty I have marked cycles from first top and first bottom to give other points of interest on Nifty.Nifty is being suported at the centre of the channel twice and bounced back from there.Now we are again approaching the centre of the channel.The point of interest at centre on the channel come to 4359 on 11.10.2011.To get this point we need to accelerate in the downward direction very rapidly.Looking at the current scenario it does not seem so as we have to break 4720.Now if we recover from here as world markets are showing some recovery on the upside we have a target of 4910 on 11.10.2011. So lets watch it. Happy Trading !

HAPPY DASSERA TO ONE AND ALL

Wishing you all success in your trading life and may the demon of losses elude you henceforth.
Happy Dassera !
Happy Trading !

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW AT 9.35AM

RESISTANCE AT 4810 (50%)
BREAKOUT LOWER BELOW 4782(38.2%)
BREAKOUT UPPER ABOVE 4820 (61.8%)
Happy Trading !

NIFTY VIEW FOR 05.10.2011

Nifty has made a double bottom yesterday and is still within the channel for more than a month or so.The channel needs to be watch carefully as within it we are range bound with hopes of some recovery.If we break the channel on downside expect volatile moves on Nifty with panic.On break of channel do not take over exposure and wait till it settles for  a day or two.Keeping intraday view with strict stop losses is the order of the day.No positional view and profit booking is must with small targets or trail the stop loss to lock in profits.Please do not guess or anticipate targets in mind but watch actual levels in markets.

LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRADAY ON 05.10.2011
No trading zone between 4755 to 4789 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 4789 with SL of 4774 for targets of 4807 - 4824 - 4841- 4859
Sell below 4755 with SL of 4770 for targets of 4738 - 4720 - 4703- 4686
Happy Trading !

PRICE AND TIME ON NIFTY

SOME IMPORTANT PRICE AND TIME LEVELS ON NIFTY
Happy Trading !

FIBO CHANNELS ON NIFTY SHOWING THE TREND

ARE WE NEARING A CHANNEL BOTTOM TOMORROW  ON NIFTY!
Expect more panic and volatility if we break this channel.
Happy Trading ! 

NIFTY EOD CHART COMPARED WITH INTRADAY CHART AT 10.30 AM

THOSE WHO FOLLOWED THE CHANNEL WOULD HAVE CERTAINLY BENEFITED TODAY.
Happy Trading !

NIFTY INTRaDAY CHART 04.11.2011

Watch and Trade accordingly
Happy Trading !

NIFTY VIEW FOR 04.10.2011 REVISED

REVISED LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRADAY ON 04.10.2011
No trading zone between 4806 to 4840 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 4840 with SL of 4825 for targets of 4858 - 4875 - 4893- 4910
Sell below 4806 with SL of 4821 for targets of 4788 - 4771 - 4754- 4737
Happy Trading !

NIFTY VIEW FOR 04.10.2011

 Nifty has given a break out on the downside with the break of 4888.Now we have another gap to close which will act as a resistance.On the chart 4905 was the level of support on spot nifty which will act as resistance now.Still nifty is within the channel which is some what heartening and gives hope of some recovery.Today was an example when major support cannot be taken out in trading such supports are taken with gap downs.This also happens on the upside with resistances taken out with gap up.The trend is down with channel support as targets.On upside it should clear 4905 and close above 4950 to move further upside.

LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRADAY ON 04.10.2011
No trading zone between 4832 to 4867 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 4867 with SL of 4852 for targets of 4884 - 4902 - 4919- 4937
Sell below 4832 with SL of 4847 for targets of 4815 - 4797 - 4780- 4763
Happy Trading !  

REVISED LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRADAY ON 03.10.2011
No trading zone between 4853 to 4887 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 4887 with SL of 4872 for targets of 4905 - 4922 - 4940- 4958
Sell below 4853 with SL of 4868 for targets of 4835 - 4818 - 4800- 4783
Happy Trading !

NIFTY VIEW FOR 03.10.2011

Fridays close has changed picture for spot Nifty with a close below 4950.As I had given a very positive view on Nifty.But I had mentioned we need to close above 4950 on friday and also cross the resistance of 5113 and close the gap.Now for the short term trend I have marked Woodies levels on the chart with pivot.The trend will change from down to up above 5041( PSAR level.).

LEVELS OF SPOT NIFTY FOR INTRADAY  ON 03.10.2011
No trading zone between 4926 to 4961 to avoid whipsaws.
Buy above 4961 with SL of 4946 for targets of 4979 - 4996 - 5014- 5028
Sell below 4926 with SL of 4941 for targets of 4908 - 4891 - 4873- 4856
Happy Trading !  

ICHIMOKU CLOUD ON NIFTY

Using the Ichimoku Cloud

A multi-faceted indicator designed to give support/resistance levels, trend direction, and entry/exit points of varying strengths. General theory behind this indicator states that if price action is above the cloud, the overall trend is bullish, and if below the cloud, the overall trend is bearish. There are also moving averages (the Tenkan and Kijun lines) which act like the MACD crossover signals with the Tenkan crossing from underneath the Kijun as a bullish signal, while crossing overhead giving a bearish signal.

Kumo, the Ichimoku Cloud

 It later became known as the 'Ichimoku Cloud' since the most characteristic feature of the indicator is the cloud (Kumo), which is designed to represent various levels of support and resistance. In developing the cloud, Hosada realized support/resistance levels were not single lines drawn in the sand, since traders were often placing their trades at various distances from the support levels. Thus, since support was many layers deep from the offers/bids around the level, he created a cloud to represent the past levels of support/resistance. The cloud is composed of the two Senkou Span lines (A&B or 1&2) which are pushed forward in time, and when the area between them is shaded in, it makes a cloud-like shape. The most basic theory of this indicator is that if the price is above the cloud, the overall trend is bullish while below the cloud is bearish, and in the cloud is non-biased or unclear. Lastly, when the price is above the cloud, then the top of the cloud will act as a general support level, and when price is below, the cloud base will act as resistance. But remember the cloud has thickness, and thus resistance does as well, which by making these thicker reduces the risk of a false breakout.

Tenkan & Kijun Lines

 The indicator goes much further than this, with using two moving average lines; the Tenkan Line and the Kijun Line, which are 9 and 26 day moving averages (exponential). The Tenkan Line is really the conversion line which is when crosses the Kijun line from underneath, is indicative of a bullish signal. When it crosses over the Kijun line from above pointing downward, it becomes indicative of a bearish signal.

Chikou Span

 There is also one last line called the Chikou Span, which is representative of today's price moved back 26 periods ago. This is where the strength of the signal comes in. If you have a bearish signal (downward crossover of the Tenkan over the Kijun) and the Chikou Span is below the base, then the signal strength increases. If you have a bullish crossover (Tenkan crosses the Kijun from underneath) and the Chikou Span is above the cloud top, then the signal strength increases.

NIFTY MONTHLY 

Senkou Span A = 5401.40 

Senkou Span B = 4434.00 

Tenkan Sen(9 days EMA)  = 5461.10

Kinjun Sen(26 days EMA) = 5125.50

Chinkou Span(Last Line)   = 4927.90

NIFTY MONTHLY TREND :As the price is between span A and span B trend is undecided ie in the clouds.

NIFTY WEEKLY 

 

Senkou Span A = 5529.50 

Senkou Span B = 5237.70 

Tenkan Sen(9 days EMA)  = 5133.20

Kinjun Sen(26 days EMA) = 5342.10

Chinkou Span(Last Line)   = 4927.90

NIFTY WEEKLY TREND :As the price is below both span A and span B trend is down ie below or under the clouds.

NIFTY DAILY

  

Senkou Span A = 5123.10 

Senkou Span B = 5274.00 

Tenkan Sen(9 days EMA)  = 4962.90

Kinjun Sen(26 days EMA) = 4943.60

Chinkou Span(Last Line)   = 4927.90

NIFTY DAILY TREND :As the price is below both span A and span B trend is down ie below or under the clouds.For short term the levels to be watched are 5123-4962-4943-4927.

NIFTY HOURLY 

  

Senkou Span A = 4898.60 

Senkou Span B = 4962.70 

Tenkan Sen(9 days EMA)  = 4981.10

Kinjun Sen(26 days EMA) = 4974.10

Chinkou Span(Last Line)   = 4927.90

NIFTY HOURLY TREND :As the price is between both span A and span B trend is undecided ie in the clouds.Below 4927-4898  the trend will be clearly down as this the last line level and ideal level to short with immediate target of 4898.Below it revise stop loss to 4898 and ride the trend if it goes there.

Conclusion :For intraday levels to be watched on Monday are 4981-4974-4962-4927-4898.