Nifty View for 30.08.2013

A set of great days for expiry players in this series who could track the trend. This is what we are trying to achieve here and I think those who have followed it were on the right side of the trend. The expiry for August series at 5409.50 is the take away. The pivot for September series is at 5555.55(awesome figure..lol). Well the last swing high was at 5526.75 which makes it more awesome. Coming to the point we are below this pivot so watch this level carefully with no bias for bull or bear in mind. Try to trade only levels to achieve desired results which will remove fear and greed from your mind. Support level no 1 for September series is at 5258.90( three lows formed around this level 5200,5250 and 5257) again making this level to watch for further clues. The resistance level no 1 for September series is at 5774.70( again swing highs coming at 5759,5725 and 5717) so making this level also as important as the other two levels. Breaking out of this range for futures will be a hard task i.e from 5750 to 5250. So lets use this levels very carefully to make some profits for ourselves. The intermediate resistance levels are 5663-5775 and intermediate supports levels are at 5407-5259.

The 4 hourly chart for futures with MM levels show s the level of 5313 sustained to day and attempting the next level of 5469. For tomorrow use 5469 as pivot with resistance at 5625 and supports at 5313. for this time frame.

The hourly chart with awesome for futures shows green for the day end. We are again at the neutral level for awesome. The divergence for MFI and RSI has played out in two days move.  MACD is till below the neutral level and is always late. On price action we are again at the channel top and below the first resistance level of 5501 marked on chart.  Use 5400 as pivot with 5475-5550 are resistance and 5325-5250 as supports for this time frame.

Intraday traders can look at the levels on futures given below to trade on Friday.

Nifty Futures Levels for Trading on Friday :

No trade between 5397 and 5434(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5434 sl of 5414

targets 5453-5472(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5491-5510-5529-5548-5567.

Sell below 5397  sl of 5417

targets 5378-5359(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5340-5321-5302-5283-5264.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 29.08.2013

Nifty futures formed another bottom at 5108.25 and then recovered to the end of the day to close at 5288.90. The intraday high being at 5318.70. Now that we have formed a panic low we need confirmation of that on the upside. For confirmation we need to cross the high of 5319 and need to close at least above 5370 level. On monthly levels we missed the target of 5043. Still we have closed above the pivot of 5218 given yesterday. The resistance is at 5395 and supports at 5042 for this time frame. 

On the four hourly chart with MM levels we have hit both the levels of 5313 and 5156. For tomorrow use pivot of 5313 with resistance at 5469 and supports at 5156.

On the hourly chart of futures with awesome we see some green at the end of the day and awesome at neutral levels again. Awesome and MACD both showing diivergence with MFI bouncing from lower levels. Again the price bounced from the channel bottom. The green horizontal of 5501 is a big resistance but sustaining above 5300 is the key for any recovery chances. Use 5300 as pivot with targets of 5375 on upside and 5225-5150 on downsides. Break of 5250 will be an early sign of weakness.

Intraday traders can look at the levels on spot nifty to trade on expiry day.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Thursday :

No trade between 5267 and 5304(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5304 sl of 5284

targets 5323-5342(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5361-5380-5399-5418-5437.

Sell below 5267  sl of 5287

targets 5248-5229(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5210-5191-5172-5153-5134.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 28.08.2013

Nifty futures had a gap down opening and never recovered for the day. the low made is at 5256.90 a double bottom or triple bottom considering 5250. Last hope for this trend is 5250 below it the recovery chances are very thin. On the monthly levels 5395 taken out intraday so 5218 comes to picture again. Some recovery possible if sustained above 5395. Breach of 5218 may take it up to 5043.  So use 5218 as pivot for this time frame.

Futures 4 hourly MM level chart shows the 5469 level taken out with gap down and was short for the day below it. Targets of 5313 achieved.  Use 5313 as pivot for this time frame. Resistance at 5469 and supports at 5235 and 5157.

The hourly futures with awesome showed red from start of the day and closed in red. We could not clear the channel top nor the horizontal resistance marked on chart. The trend may continue to channel bottom on further weakness. The pivot of 5275 can be used with resistance at 5375 and supports at 5175 for this time frame.

Intraday traders can use the levels on spot nifty given below to trade on Wednesday.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Wednesday :

No trade between 5269 and 5306(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5306 sl of 5286

targets 5325-5344(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5363-5382-5401-5420-5439.

Sell below 5269  sl of 5289

targets 5250-5231(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5212-5193-5174-5155-5136.

Happy Trading !!!  

Gold ETF( Goldman Sachs Gold ETF) 27.08.2013.... An missed Opportunity.....

Gold ETF is used by many for diversification of portfolio and is advised by financial advisors to a maximum of 10% of portfolio size. Its highly liquid investment and Gold ETF is the way go.

Above chart shows the Goldman Sachs Gold ETF Fund which can be used for investment as lumpsum or the more preferred SIP route.

The chart shows the Bollinger bands with 200 SMA as central line and I have taken 4 standard deviation around the 200 SMA.

Lets understand what we can interpret through the 4 std. deviations around it. Now everybody is familiar with 200 SMA and its use so I will not delve into it. 

The above chart shows the standard deviation curve. The Bell shaped curve shows the various deviations. The first deviation is around 68 % Probability which means the price will be within this band for 68% of time. The second deviation shows 96% probability so price will be within this second band for 96% for time. Now here is an opportunity for all of us just to observe when price moves out of the second band. Since we see the third and fourth band contains only 4% time. So price is going to bounce back to the 96% zone soon.

The Gold ETF chart shows the price was between the third and fourth zone of 4% on 15.04.2013. It was there for few days more from 15.04.2013 to 25.04.2013 in panic days. This was the right time to buy this ETF or top-up your investment as this was a rare opportunity not to be missed. 

Lets see what happened next. The ETF price bounced from the lows of 2392 on 16.04.2013 to hit the second deviation band at 2598. Still it was out of the 96% percent zone. There was second opportunity when price action touched the third deviation for support on 28.06.2013 with the low at 2377.22 another panic low. Thereafter price has not looked down and its been one way up. This second opportunity was confirmed by positive divergence on MFI and MACD shown in chart. 

Currently we have hit the first deviation at 2921 and facing some resistance there. If it sustains above this level then it can move up to the second deviation at 3100. So use your discretion whether to book profits here or hold with suitable stop loss as per your risk profile.

Happy Trading !!!

Nifty View for 27.08.2013

Nifty futures opened with a gap up at 5482.50 and hit the high of 5526.75 and saw some profit booking and closed at the neutral level of 5467.10. Things have been quiet after the low of 5200 and recovery is seen with low volatility. On monthly level 5571 is the resistance with 5395 as pivot. So till 5395 is held have chances of further recovery. Break of 5395 will be the first sign of weakness creeping in for the trend. Further weakness will be confirmed below 5218 levels. 

The futures 4 hourly chart shows consolidation around the levels of 5469. Use this level of 5469 as pivot for tomorrow with resistance at 5625 and supports at 5313 for this time frame.

Nifty futures on hourly with awesome show the neutral level held by it with some tint of red at end.  On chart we see the first horizontal hit at 5501. Also price has reached the channel top. We need to cross both the channel top and horizontal for further gains. Use the level of 5470 as pivot with 5540 as resistance and supports at 5400 on this time frame.

Intraday traders can use the levels on spot nifty given below to trade on Tuesday.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Tuesday :

No trade between 5458 and 5495(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5495 sl of 5475

targets 5514-5533(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5552-5571-5590-5609-5628.

Sell below 5458  sl of 5478

targets 5439-5420(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5401-5382-5363-5344-5325.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 26.08.2013

Nifty futures opened above the earlier close of 5408.45 giving a positive start for the day and made a low of 5370.30 and high of 5467.95 to close the week at 5460.70. The panic low being at 5200(not reliable) but low of 5250 on 22.08.2013 needs to be watch for further downside. The range of 5250 to 5500 will be consolidation zone with target up to 5750 for this expiry. Anything above this is sheer out-performance. Lets see where we are on our monthly levels for August series. The bottom was around the 5218.75 level which the support level no 3 observed as extreme level. Next resistance of 5395 taken out as we have closed above it. So use this as pivot for expiry with 4 days left keeping 5571 as resistance and 5218 as support for this time frame.

Nifty futures 4 hourly chart for futures with MM levels shows the resistance of 5469 was not crossed at the close of the week. Use this level as pivot for expiry with resistance at 5625 and support at 5313 on this time frame.

Nifty futures hourly chart with awesome shows green at the end of week and it closed above the neutral zone so some positive sentiments prevailing here. We bounced back from the channel bottom so the initial target is channel top. Watch the level of green at 5501 which needs to be crossed for further gains. The next level of resistance is at green level coming at 5752. For this time frame use 5450 as pivot with resistance at 5525 and support at 5375. Below 5375 we have negative bias for this trend. Sustaining above 5525 will bring in more positiveness for this trend. With expiry looming ahead take your profits off the tables as per your risk profile.

Intraday traders can look at the levels on spot nifty given below to trade on Monday.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Monday :

No trade between 5453 and 5490(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5490 sl of 5470

targets 5519-5538(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5557-5576-5595-5614-5633.

Sell below 5453  sl of 5473

targets 5434-5415(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5396-5377-5358-5339-5320.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 23.08.2013

Nifty futures after whipsawing over the yesterday's close finally close in green at 5414.30. The high of the day was at 5425 and low was at 5250.  The range between 5250 to 5500 will be consolidation zone. As when breakout is witnessed the resistance on the upside will be 5750 and for the downside will be 5000. Trend players can watch the breakout direction. The monthly levels show pivot at 5395 with resistance at 5571 and support at 5218.

Nifty futures 4 hourly MM levels show the 5313 pivot sustained for the day and target seems to be at 5469. For tomorrow the 5313 to 5469 will be positive zone and breakout will be above 5469. Below 5313 negative sentiments will prevail with targets on downside at 5157.

The hourly chart for futures with awesome shows some green at the end of the day. Indicator are supporting the price at end of day. We have bounced back from the channel bottom and need to cross the 5500 resistance. Use 5400 as pivot with resistance at 5475 and support at 5325 for this time frame.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Friday :

No trade between 5390 and 5427(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5427 sl of 5407

targets 5446-5465(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5484-5503-5522-5541-5560.

Sell below 5390  sl of 5410

targets 5371-5352(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5333-5314-5295-5276-5257.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 22.08.2013

Nifty futures had a good start but could not sustain the gains to the end of the day. The days high was at 5498.70 and the low was at 5257.60. The close was at 5291.60. Yesterday's freak low is yet to be hit on futures. The divergence played out on the earlier part of the day. How to use the levels given here in blog is as per your risk profile. For example the levels of 5571 and 5395 had been given as resistance and pivot yesterday. Today's open was at 5492 and high was just 6-7 points ahead of it. If we average the two levels given (5571 and 5395) we get 5483, so intermediate resistance was hit. One could have taken a call on downside to close the gap. The move below the pivot was more confirmation with the opening gap closed and futures moving into red zone. The target below was 5483 - 5395 = 88 points;  5395 - 88 = 5307 which was achieved with low at 5257.80.  The support level no 3 for this August series is at 5218.75 which is an extreme level  as we have moved from resistance level no 1 of  6091.50( high for futures at 6139.85 on 23.07.2013). So those who could move with the trend must have been in good profits as the pivot for this month was at 5923.25.  For tomorrow we need to sustain above 5218.75 (pivot) with resistance at 5395 and support at 5042.65. 

The 4 hourly chart with MM levels shows the breach of pivot of  5313 at the end of the day. The resistance of 5467 was hit today and the down move started. Use 5313 as pivot with same resistance of 5467 and supports at 5156.

The hourly chart for futures with awesome closed with red at the end of the day. Yesterday's green continued with the gap up and then turned down. The first green horizontal resistance marked on chart was hit today and we moved to the channel bottom again. Breach of channel will continue the downtrend. We need to cross the first resistance again for more positiveness. Use 5300 as pivot with 5400 as resistance and 5200 as support. 

Intraday traders can use the levels on spot nifty given below to trade on Thursday.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Thursday :

No trade between 5283 and 5320(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5320 sl of 5300

targets 5339-5358(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5377-5396-5415-5434-5453.

Sell below 5283  sl of 5303

targets 5264-5245(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5226-5207-5188-5169-5150.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 21.08.2013

Nifty futures have hit a freak low of 5200 for this series(not reflected in other two nifty series). The adjusted low could be at 5339.65 - 35(premium for September) = 5304.65 for this series. The close for the day was at 5398.50. The high for the day was at 5419.90. There is divergence on MFI but price should confirm it. The level to watch is 5395 as pivot with resistance at 5571 and supports at 5218.75. 

The 4 hourly nifty futures MM level chart we see the level of 5313 hit today on downside. The pivot is at 5313 with resistance at 5469 and support at 5235.

The futures hourly chart with awesome shows some green at the end of the day on awesome. Price action staying within the channel may attempt to hit the top of channel.  The horizontal levels marked look to be resistance ahead. Use 5400 as pivot with 5475 resistance and 5325 as support.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Wednesday :

No trade between 5383 and 5420(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5420 sl of 5400

targets 5439-5458(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5477-5496-5515-5534-5553.

Sell below 5383  sl of 5403

targets 5364-5345(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5326-5307-5288-5269-5250.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 20.08.2013

Nifty futures had a fall again making low of 5367.05 and closed the day at 5416.75. On price chart we have hit a significant trend line but we need to watch it further. Predicting bottoms or highs can be detrimental to financial health. But following the trend will keep you alive in the market and provide a chance to make profits. We had support as per our intermediate support level of 5394 for futures. This level was breached intraday but we have closed above it. This level of 5394 can be used as pivot if sustained with resistance at 5571 and support at 5218.75 for this time frame.

The 4 hourly chart for futures show the level of 5469 was broken and hit the next level of 5391. This level of 5391 can be used as pivot with resistance at 5469 and support at 5313 on this time frame.

The hourly chart of futures with awesome shows some green at the end of the day. The price of 5400 is the level to watch on this time frame. The indicators RSI and MFI look oversold but cannot be confirmed without price moving up. The resistance is at 5475 and support is at 5325 with 5400 as pivot.

Intraday traders can use the levels on spot nifty given below to trade on Tuesday.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Tuesday :

No trade between 5396 and 5433(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5433 sl of 5413

targets 5452-5471(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5490-5509-5528-5547-5566.

Sell below 5396  sl of 5416

targets 5377-5358(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5339-5320-5301-5282-5263.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 19.08.2013

Nifty futures witnessed a huge sell off at the end of the week on Friday. It made a low of 5493.50 on Friday and closed the week at 5505. It was a lesson for us once again not to attempt at bottom picking and go with the trend. The level of 5739.25 our support no 1 was breached at open and the levels of 5655.15 and 5571 failed to provide support. The level of 5571 was support level no 2 for August series. The intermediate support level below this is at 5394.90. This is the level to watch on the downside now with resistance at 5571. 

On the 4 hourly MM level chart for futures the level of 5703 was the pivot and below it the trend was down. Futures went down through two support levels of 5625 and 5547. For Monday the level of 5547 is the pivot on this time frame with resistance at 5625 and support at 5469.

On the hourly chart with awesome for futures we had observed some red on Wednesday at close and the red continued on Friday. Also MFI and RSI were in over bought zone and they have corrected down to 28 and 27 level from the highs of 89 and 73 respectively. We need to watch these both for bottom formation and any positive divergence being formed on them.  Also MACD as come down to the neutral level and needs to be watched for further clues for this trend. For Monday use 5000 as pivot with resistance at 5575 and support at 5425 on this time frame.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Monday :

No trade between 5489 and 5526(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5526 sl of 5506

targets 5545-5564(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5583-5602-5621-5640-5659.

Sell below 5489  sl of 5509

targets 5470-5451(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5432-5413-5394-5375-5356.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 16.08.2013

Nifty futures had another green day with positive close at 5757.55. The high and low being at 5759.00 and 5698.45.  Futures have closed above the support level 1 of 5739.25. So above 5739.25 it is positive with resistance at 5831.25 and support at 5655.15. The monthly pivot is at 5923.25 which will be a big hurdle for futures on this time frame. 

The 4 hourly chart of futures with MM levels shows close above the 5703 level. Use this as pivot with resistance at 5781 and support at 5625 for this time frame. Expecting some congestion around level of 5781 but close above it will be positive.

The hourly chart with awesome show red at the close of the day. With RSI and MFI in over-bought zone. 5725 can be used at pivot for this time frame with resistance at 5800 and support at 5650.

Intraday traders can use the levels on spot nifty given below to trade on Friday.

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Friday :

No trade between 5723 and 5761(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5761 sl of 5741

targets 5780-5799(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5818-5837-5856-5875-5894.

Sell below 5723  sl of 5743

targets 5704-5685(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5666-5647-5628-5609-5590.

Happy Trading !!!  

Nifty View for 14.08.2013

Nifty futures had another green day with futures settling above the 5700 level at 5711.35. The high was at 5717 and low was at 5589.15.  Next hurdle at 5739.15, if not crossed tomorrow then below today's low we may see correction up to 5650-5625. Hurdle if crossed then it may open the range up to 5841 for futures. 

On the futures 4 hourly chart we hit our resistance at 5703 and closed above it. For tomorrow we have pivot at 5703 with resistance at 5781 and support at 5625. 

On the hourly futures chart with awesome we see the awesome above the neutral level with the green continuing on it.  MFI has reached the 80 levels a resistance level. RSI has hit the 68 level another resistance level. MACD has reached the neutral level. So indicators are positive with some of them showing exhaustion. So if we do not cross the 5725 level we may correct to 5650-5625 levels. Use 5700 as pivot on this time frame with 5775 as resistance and support at 5625.

Intraday traders can use the levels on spot nifty given below to trade on Wednesday. 

Spot Nifty Levels for Trading on Wednesday :

No trade between 5680 and 5718(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5718 sl of 5698

targets 5737-5756(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5775-5794-5813-5832-5851.

Sell below 5680  sl of 5700

targets 5661-5642(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5623-5604-5585-5566-5547.

Happy Trading !!!