Decennial Cycle and Bull and Bear Calendar Years

Gann discovered the 10-year cycle, or decennial pattern. A lot of people now write about it in books and claim it to be theirs, but I believe it came from W.D.Gann’s 1935 forecasting course. By studying the yearly high and low chart and going back over a long period of time, you will see the years in which bull markets culminate and the years in which bear markets begin and end.

Each decade or 10-year cycle, which is 1/10th of 100 years, marks an important campaign. The digits from 1-9 are important. All you have to learn is to count the digits on your fingers in order to ascertain what kind of a year the market is in.

No. 1 in a new decade is a year in which a bear market ends and a bull market begins. Look up 1901, 1911, 1921, 1931, 1941, 1951, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, and watch for 2011, and 2021.  So far this year we are in a bearish trend. It’s important to note that yearly cycles within the overall scheme of Gann cycles are not a big factor, and you need to do further analysis. You don’t want to buy into October if major Gann angles or supports have been broken, and I stress the importance of considering many factors in making your decisions.  

No. 2 or the second year is a year of a minor bull market, or a year in which a rally in a bear market will start at some time. See 1902, 1912, 1922, 1932, 1942, 1952, 1962, 1972, 1982, 1992, 2002, and watch for 2012, and 2022

No. 3 starts a bear year, but the rally from the second year may run to March or April before culmination, or a decline from the second year may run down and make bottom in February or March, like 1933. Look up 1903, 1913, 1923, 1933, 1943, 1953, 1963, 1973, 1983, 1993, 2003, and watch for 2013, and 2023.

No. 4 or the fourth year, is a bear year, but ends the bear cycle and lays the foundation for a bull market. Compare 1904, 1914, 1924, 1934, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1974, 1984, 1994, 2004, and watch for 2014, and 2024.

No. 5 or the fifth year is the year of Ascension, and a very strong year for a bull market. It can be a new bull market or a big correction in an existing uptrend. See 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005, and watch for 2015, and 2025. 

 No. 6 or the sixth year is a bull year, in which a bull campaign which started in the 4th year ends in the fall of the year and a fast decline starts. See 1896, 1906, 1916, 1926, 1936, 1946, 1956, 1966, 1976, 1986, 1996, and watch for 2006, 2016, and 2026.. 

No. 7 or the seventh year is a bear number, and the seventh year is a bear year because 84 months or 84 degrees is 7/8 of 90. See 1897, 1907, 1917, but note 1927 was the end of a 60-year cycle, so there was not much decline. Also see 1937, 1947, 1957, 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, and watch for 2007, 2017, and 2027.

No. 8 or the eigth year is a bull year. Prices start advancing in the seventh year and reach the 90th month in the eighth year. This is very strong and a big advance usually takes place. Review 1898, 1908, 1918, 1928, 1938, 1948, 1958, 1968, 1978, 1988, 1998, and watch for 2008, 2018, 2028.

No. 9 the highest digit and the ninth year, is the strongest of all for bull markets. Final bull campaigns culminate in this year after extreme advances and prices start to decline. Bear markets usually start in September or November at the end of the ninth year and a sharp decline takes place. See 1869, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919, and 1929 – the year of the greatest advances, culminating in the fall of the year, followed by a sharp decline. Also see 1939, 1949, 1959, 1969, 1979, 1989, 1999, and watch for 2009, and 2019.

No. 10 the tenth year, is a bear year. A rally often runs until March and April; then a severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts. See 1910, 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and watch for 2010, 2020, and 2030.

In referring to these numbers and years, we mean the calendar years. To understand this, study 1891 to 1900, 1901 to 1910, 1911 to 1920, 1921 to 1930, 1931 to 1940, 1941 to 1950, 1951 to 1960, 1961 to 1970, 1971 to 1980, 1981 to 1990, 1991 to 2000, 2001 to 2010, 2011 to 2020.

The 10-year cycle continues to repeat over and over, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30-year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others.

THIS ARTICLE UPDATED FROM W.D. GANN’S 1935 FORECASTING COURSE
Taken from http://www.schoolofgann.com/ 

Happy Trading!