Nifty View for 12.06.2013

Nifty futures opened weak and stayed in red for the day making a new low of 5793.60. The sideways zone of 5910 to 5992 was never touched today. As mentioned below 5910 we may see more downside has materialised today in a big way after few days of breaching this level. On charts we see below the critical level marked nifty futures have moved to downside within the channel and are approaching the bottom of the channel. The probable level of channel bottom is marked in dotted on chart and we are very near to it. On indicators front we see RSI reaching the level of 34 after breaching 55 and staying below 34 will see more downside. MFI the early indicator has hit the 20 level and is near its bottoms and needs to be watched carefully for early reversal signal.  MACD has come to the neutral level of zero and needs to be watched from here. The low of 5510 was reached on futures on 10.04.2014 and high of 5246.65 was reached on 20.05.2013 so the range was nearly 737 points. The fibo retracement of 50% was at 5878.50 (hit on 06.06.2013) . Breach of this we had targets of 61.8% retracement at 5791.50( nearly hit today with low at 5793.60). So watch this level of 5791.50 for support if any recovery is seen. Below this level we have next retracement coming at 78.6% at 5668 on the futures. The rise has taken 26 trading days. The fall is in its 16th day. The ratio of trading days comes to 16/26=0.615. The price fall is 6246.65-5793.60=453.05 points , so ratio of fall is 453.05/736.65=0.615. So price and time have maintained their ratio. Trend traders can use the main levels as we hit the level of 5804 below 5910 given in earlier updates. Now below the intermediate level of 5804 we have the support level no 2 for this series at 5697. Intraday traders can look at the level on spot nifty given below to trade on Wednesday.

Spot  Nifty Levels for Trading on Wednesday :

No trade between 5770 and 5808(To avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5808 sl of 5788

targets 5827-5846(add positions, breakout on the upside),

5865-5884-5903-6011-6030.

Sell below 5770  sl of 5790

targets 5751-5732(add positions,breakout on the downside)

5713-5694-5675-5656-5637.

Happy Trading !!!